主讲人：Bertrand Roehner

主持人：李海红教授（理学院）

时间：2018年10月25日（周四）晚上6：30

地点：教三105教室

报告摘要：

包括数据分析在内的实验对于各种复杂系统的科学理解至关重要。Bertrand教授将结合近些年北师大开展的实验科学锦标赛，对重复发生的历史事件、物理问题、社会科学问题以及生物种群行为等问题进行实验设计与科学分析。这对于即将开展科学研究的同学来说是一个很好科研训练启蒙讲座。

Experiments including data analysis are crucial for scientific understanding of various complex systems. Together with the introduction of BNU Championship in Experimental Science, the talk will focus on scientific analysis of recurrent historical event. In earlier centuries all kings and governments employed astrologists to help them take the right decisions. Nowadays governments no longer employ astrologists but do not have any analytical tool to replace them. Some rare leaders had a personal“sense of history”which helped them choose their way, but a scientific tool would clearly be useful. It is the purpose of this talk to propose one which has been developed and tested over past decades. Its guiding principle is very simple and can be summarized in two sentences: “Identify and compare former events which have a similar mechanism. Then, what has happened many times is likely to happen again.” When an astrophysicist wants to study neutron stars he does not rely on only one observation but collects all available cases. The same should be done for historical events. Because they are trained accordingly astrophysicists and physicists have a special role to play in the development of this project. For many decision makers such a tool would be quite useful particularly for personnel of the Ministries of Defense or Foreign Affairs.

报告人简介：

Bertrand Roehner，教授，法国巴黎大学(Pierre and Marie Curie)的粒子物理学家，北京师范大学系统科学学院教授。研究兴趣包括经济学、社会学、物理学。作为BNU实验科学锦标赛的主导老师，近10年的BNU实验科学锦标赛的题目几乎都出自于Bertrand教授。

（注：BNU实验科学锦标赛是由北京师范大学系统科学学院发起主办的，自2009年起，已经成功举办了9届，成功吸引了北大、北师大和北邮等国内十余所高校的学生参加，是体验实验科学魅力的一次盛会。）